Gold climbs nearly 90 times in 100 years

Observers said it is likely to touch the $2000 mark this year as it was seen as the perfect answer for inflation and hyper inflation which is gripping most parts of the world.

NEW DELHI : Gold's value climbed nearly ninety times in the last hundred years as it climbed from $20 an ounce to $1777 an ounce.

Observers said it is likely to touch the $2000 mark this year as it was seen as the perfect answer for inflation and hyper inflation which is gripping most parts of the world.

They said 2012 looks a momentous year for gold and expected to increases in the price, investments, and production.

The yellow metal provides easier liquidity than most other investments last year and expected to repeat it this year as weel, they added.

On investment scenario, gold's appeal brightened last year as stock market and other financial markets stayed volatile throughout last year.

Meanwhile, Australia produced 270 tons of gold last year to remain in second position after leader China in gold production.

China, world's top producer topped the table with 361 tons in 2011 and is planning on producing up to 400 tonnes of gold in 2012.

Aussie gold production increased by 24 tons from 2010. The United States with a production of 230 tons remained at the Third spot last year.

Russia's production of 200 tons earned it the fourth position in rankings in 2011. Countries all around the world have been producing gold at a increasing rate throughout 2011.

Gold Looks to US Inflation Bets, Dollar Price Action for Direction

Talking Points

• Crude Oil May Pull Back but Bias Favors the Upside on Iran Tensions
• Gold Looks to US Inflation Outlook, Dollar Price Action for Direction
• Copper at Risk on Risk Aversion But Reports of Shortage May Support

Tensions with Iran continue to inject a considerable geopolitical risk premium into crude oil prices, with the WTI contract touching an 8-month high yesterday. The latest bit of escalation came after talks between Tehran and IAEA came apart after the government refused to allow inspection of a site in Pachin reported to be testing explosives.

Technical positioning warns a pullback may be ahead however (see below), hinting the recent batch of supportive news-flow has been priced in already. Still, with Iran reportedly starting to conduct civilian defense drills in preparation for armed conflict, the satiation is unlikely to be defused quickly (if at all) so the path of least resistance continues to broadly favor the upside.

Gold prices jumped to the highest in 3 month yesterday on the back of a widely-circulated Financial Times article that claimed the Federal Reserve will extend the so-called “Operation Twist” stimulus program beyond June. The scheme has the Fed selling shorter-term assets on its balance sheet in exchange for further-dated ones to target a decline in the long-term borrowing costs. Bloomberg News also cited sources saying buying by automated trading systems buoyed prices.

Looking ahead, strong correlations between precious metal prices US inflation expectations (measured by “breakeven rates”, the spread between nominal and inflation-linked Treasury bond yields) puts the spotlight on US jobless claims and House Price Index figures due today. An overnight pullback in the US Dollar may also emerge as a supportive factor, although a sudden downward reversal in S&P 500 stock index futures in early European trade may reboot safe-haven demand for the greenback to the detriment of both gold and silver. The selloff appears to have followed an EU Commission report forecasting the regional bloc’s collective economy will shrink 0.3 percent in 2012 (compared with previous estimates of a 0.5 percent expansion).

The emerging adverse reversal in risk appetite trends likewise bodes ill for Copper prices. The metal remains highly sensitive to global economic growth expectations, meaning the return of slowdown fears is likely to be a considerable headwind. Selling pressure may be at least partially offset near-term however amid reports that production lagged demand by the largest margin (119,000 metric tons) in November, according to ICSG.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $106.28 // +0.44 // +0.42%

A candle in Star position below resistance at 106.81, the 138.2% Fibonacci extension,gives earlywarning thata pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 105.61, the 123.6% Fib. A break lower exposes the January 4 swing high at 103.66.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1776.22 // +17.10 // +0.97%

Prices continued higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support 1714.60, breaking resistance at 1763.00. The bulls now aim to challenge the November 8 high at 1802.80, although early signs of negative RSI divergence hint upward momentum may not prove long-lasting. The 1763.00 level has been recast as near-term support.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $34.27 // -0.04 // -0.12%

Prices are testing above range resistance at 34.37, the February 2 swing high, with an upward breakout exposing the 35.30-66 area. For now, support remains at 32.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, though a confirmed upward piercing of 34.37 on a daily closing basis would recast that level as the immediate downside barrier.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.834 // -0.002 // -0.05%

Prices have paused after taking out resistance at 3.789 (now acting as near-term support). Renewed upward momentum initially targets 3.909. Alternatively, a break back below 3.789 sees rising trend line support at 3.720.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

UK CBI TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS [FEB] -3 VS. EXPECTED -13. SELLING PRICES 10 VS. EXPECTED 12.

UK CBI TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS [FEB] -3 VS. EXPECTED -13. SELLING PRICES 10 VS. EXPECTED 12.

EU COMMISSION PREDICTS EU ECONOMIC GROWTH AT -0.3% IN 2012, VERSUS PREVIOUS PREDICTION OF 0.5%.

EU COMMISSION PREDICTS EU ECONOMIC GROWTH AT -0.3% IN 2012, VERSUS PREVIOUS PREDICTION OF 0.5%.

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Copper to average $9,000 a metric ton in Q2; nickel at $23,500: Deutsche Bank

 A strong showing by industrial base metals in the second quarter, said Deutsche Bank in a weekly commodities report.

“Over the next several months, we believe that re-stocking could surface in China and Europe as economic conditions normalize. We therefore expect that industrial metals prices could be underpinned in the second quarter as the physical market catches up with the improvement in financial market sentiment,” the bank added.

Deutsche Bank looks for copper to have its strongest quarter in the second quarter, forecasting $9,000 a metric ton before $8,500 and $8,700 in the third and fourth periods.

Other second-quarter forecasts include aluminum, $2,400; lead, $2,250; nickel, $23,500; tin, $26,000; and zinc, $2,350. This is higher than where all are currently trading.

Gold to average $1700 in Q1, $1875 in 2012: Barclays

Gold has been impacted by softer investor demand amidst positive physical demand and prices could average $1700 per ounce in the first quarter of 2012, according to Barclays Capital. The yellow metal will average $1875 in 2012, it said.

“Gold is in search of its next catalyst, but near-term hurdles persist in the form of dollar strength and profit-taking. It bodes well for prices that the physical market remains responsive and the broader external environment positive, given negative real interest rates, concerns over currency debasement and inflationary pressures longer term.”

Barclays Capital notes that macroeconomic factors are supportive of gold, additional QE would be supportive of gold prices as is the interest rate environment which is positive for the yellow metal. A quick resolution to Greek crisis is difficult. Moody’s has downgraded the sovereign credit rating of six European countries, including Italy.

Technical Strategy from Barclays Capital : Neutral. Gold is holding within a 1700/1750 range while momentum studies unwind from stretched levels. We are bullish and would prefer to buy dips against the 1640/1670 area. A move above 1752 would confirm that the next leg higher has begun toward our target near the 1800 range highs. Support: 1700/1670; Resistance: 1803/1763 Medium term: Neutral 

Gold, silver drift lower on weak global cues

MUMBAI: Gold fell modestly at the bullion market here today on subdued stockists and jewellery demand amidst lack of local buying interest following bearish global sentiment.

Silver prices also moved down due to lower retail speculators' participation.

Besides the continuing global uncertainty over much delayed Greece bailout package, investors and traders were reluctant to take long positions in precious metals ahead of a long weekend in domestic as well as overseas market, traders commented.

Standard gold of 99.5 per cent slipped by Rs 65 to end at Rs 27,865 per 10 grams from Friday's close of Rs 27,930.

Pure gold of 99.9 per cent purity also lost by a similar margin of Rs 65 to finish at Rs 27,995 per 10 grams, as against Rs 28,060.

Silver ready (.999 fineness) eased by Rs 35 per kg to settle at Rs 56,150 from Rs 56,185 yesterday.

In New York, gold ended lower on concerns over the delay in the financial rescue deal for Greece amid positive US economic data.

Gold for April delivery down by USD 2.50 to USD 1,725.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the NYMEX later yesterday.

Silver for March contract lost 15 cents to USD 33.22 an ounce.

Multi Commodity Exchange sets price band for up to $134 mn IPO

MUMBAI: The Multi Commodity Exchange Ltd (MCX), India's biggest commodity exchange by turnover, has set a price band of 860 to 1,032 rupees a share for its initial public offering that aims raise as much as 6.6 billion rupees ($134 million).
The first Indian IPO this year would be a key test of investor appetite for share sales in Asia's third-largest economy after weak markets forced many companies to shelve stock offerings last year.
MCX is offering about 6.4 million shares in the IPO, which will open next Wednesday and close on Feb. 24, the exchange said in a newspaper advertisement.
The company will become the first Indian bourse to list its shares on an exchange.
MCX's majority shareholder Financial Technologies India Ltd and investors including state-controlled State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda will sell part of their holdings in the IPO, according to its prospectus.
Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and India's Edelweiss Capital are the bookrunners for the share sale.

Spices for Indian kitchens from Comoros

Spices such as cloves and pepper used in Indian kitchens will soon have a flavour of Comoros, an Indian Ocean island nation located in the Mozambique Channel between northern Madagascar and Africa. India too is looking forward to exporting medicines to the tiny country of 700,000 people.

Indian businessmen have travelled to Comoros to sign contracts for import of the new crops of commodities that will be available in August/September. The spices from Comoros are cheaper than similar produce from Sri Lanka.

With this, the trade between India and Comoros is expected to show a healthy increase.

Comoros, one of the largest producers of cloves and nutmeg, channels most of its produce through Madagascar. The cloves, nutmeg and white pepper from Comoros will reach India through Dubai or Madagascar.

Comoros Foreign Minister Fahim Said Ibrahim, who was in Delhi recently to attend the India-LDC Ministerial conference, said "direct trade has started between India and Comoros".

Comoros, one of the Least Developed Countries (LDC), has a largely agricultural economy and is heavily dependent on imports to meet its requirements.

It imports medicines from Mauritius, but the majority of these drugs are made in India. Indian businessmen are now looking to export medicines directly to Comoros.

"India has offered to help Comoros in the power and health sectors and in the fields of vocational training and human resource development," Ibrahim, who met with External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, told us.

The Comoros minister said India is ready to support the development process of Comoros.

There is a proposal to set up a vocational training centre in Moroni, the capital of Comoros. Besides, a power plant is to be set up outside Moroni.

People from Comoros have started travelling to India for medical treatment as the cost of treatment is lower than that in France or other neighbouring countries.

Relations between India and Comoros gained momentum after the visit of the President of the Union of Comoros, Ahmed Abdullah Mohamed Sambi, to New Delhi in November, 2007 on the invitation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to attend the International Conference on Federalism.

Last year a five-member delegation of the Comoros Chamber of Commerce had visited India to attend the India International Trade Fair.

curtsey : indiatimes.com

Guj HC quashes FMC order against NMCE founder

Ahmedabad, Feb 19 (PTI) The Gujarat High Court has quashed commodity markets regulator FMC'' order issuing showcause notice to National Multi-Commodity Exchange''s (NMCE) founder and vice chairman Kailash Gupta for alleged illegal and fraudulant act causing loss to the exchange.

"The impugned order dated July 23, 2011 passed by the Commission is quashed," the high court order said.

The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) regulates functioning of 21 commodity exchanges in the country.

The high court rejected the FMC order on the ground that the "principal of natural justice" was not followed by the regulator while conducting the inquiry.

The court has directed the FMC to conduct a fresh inquiry and submit the report within four months.

The regulator has also been asked to appoint some independent person as Managing Director and CEO of the NMCE in place of Anil Mishra in one week.

The FMC had issued showcause notice to NMCE founder Kailash Gupta based on its 96-page order, in which it had alleged that Gupta breached his fiduciary responsibility to the exchange and "systematically defrauded it, misused and misappropriated its property and committed series of crimes under various laws...for benefiting himself, his family and his family-owned/controlled firms".

The FMC had also asked the NMCE to initiate process to recover Rs 36 crore and any other illegal payment from him.

Gupta was heading the Ahmedabad-based NMCE as managing director and CEO since its inception in 2003 till May 2010.

The NMCE, the country''s third largest commodity bourse, offers an electronic platform for futures trading in plantation, spices, non-ferrous metals and oilseeds.

curtsey : in.msn.com