Geopolitical tensions boost gold futures to 1-month high

Gold futures jump to 1-month high

Investing.com - Gold prices jumped to a one-month peak on Wednesday, as investors sought refuge after North Korea said it had conducted a successful nuclear test and as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran continued to mount.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $4.30, or 0.4%, to trade at $1,082.70 a troy ounce as of 09:40 GMT, or 4:40AM ET. It earlier rose to $1,085.10, the most since December 7. On Tuesday, gold inched up $3.20, or 0.3%.

Risk sentiment weakened after North Korea confirmed that it had conducted a nuclear test and said that it won't give up nuclear capability unless U.S. abandons its hostile foreign policy towards the country.

Markets were also jittery amid growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following the execution of a prominent Saudi Shia cleric.

The yellow metal is up 2% so far this week as market players sought refuge amid instability in the Middle East and fresh concerns over global growth.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.03%, to trade at $13.97 a troy ounce during European morning hours.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper prices edged lower on Wednesday, after data showed that activity in China's services sector grew at the slowest pace in 17 months in December, the latest indication that the world's second-largest economy may be losing steam.

The Caixin services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.2 last month from November's reading of 51.2, disappointing expectations for an uptick to 52.3.

The report came after a similar survey earlier in the week showing that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the tenth straight month in December, and added to fears over the outlook for the world’s number two economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption.

Gold prices gain in Asia as China CPI rise noted

Investing.com - Gold prices gained in Asia on Thursday with regional data sets noted, particularly a rise in consumer prices in China.

In China consumer prices rose 0.5%, higher than the 0.4% gain seen in August and producer prices fell 5.9%, ore than the expected drop of 5.5% year-on-year.

Earlier, in Australia the overall unemployment rate fell to 6.2% as expected from from 6.3% and 11,500 jobs were added, compared to an expected 5,000 under a participation rate of 65% as seen.

Japan's corporate goods price index for August fell 0.6%, compared to a 0.4% fall seen month-on-month, while core machinery orders dipped 3.6% in July month-on-month, well off the 3.7% gain seen.

And the New Zealand dollar slumped in Asia on Thursday after the central bank, as expected, cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery rose 0.33% to $1,105.60 a troy ounce, wjhile silver for December delivery fell 0.04% to $14.570 a troy ounce.

Copper for December delivery rose 0.39% to $2.432 a pound.

Overnight, gold futures fell sharply on Wednesday suffering its largest one-day fall in more than six weeks, amid a broadly stronger dollar and the introduction of further stimulus measures by China to rekindle its flagging economy.

In Beijing, China's finance ministry said it would introduce "more forceful" fiscal measures in order to boost slowing economic growth, which is projected to remain at the lowest level in more than a decade for the third quarter. The measures include a potential tax cut for small business, as well as the allocation of funding for infrastructure projects. As part of the proposal, the ministry approved two railway projects worth nearly 70 billion yuan or $11 billion.

“We will accelerate the implementation and improvement of proactive fiscal policy and related measures, do timely fine tuning, and speed up reform measures to support stable growth and promote continued healthy economic development,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

It came one day after China announced that its dollar-denominated exports fell sharply by 5.5% on a year-over-year basis in August, exacerbating concerns about persisting weakness in the world's second-largest economy. Imports, meanwhile, tumbled 13.8% on a yearly basis, producing a trade surplus of $60.24 billion. On Wednesday, theShanghai Composite index closed 2.3% higher extending gains from one session earlier. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer behind India.

In the U.S., the Labor Department said on Wednesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that nationwide openings increased to a new series high in July, reaching a level of 5.8 million. The survey previously rose to a series-high in May when it reached a level of 5.4 million. The job openings rate surged 3.9% in July, after measuring at 3.6% the previous three months. It also came off the back of a mixed employment report for August on Friday when the labor market added 173,000 non-farm payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%, its lowest level since April, 2008. The data could strengthen arguments from the hawks at the Federal Reserve for a September interest rate hike.

Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in raising rate environments.

On Tuesday, World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu warned that a rate hike by the Fed next week could trigger a widespread crisis in emerging markets, pushing capital away from their economies and potentially creating sharp fluctuations in their currencies. Officials from the International Monetary Fund have issued similar warnings in recent weeks on the severe ramifications a rate hike could have on global markets that are not in the position to absorb a tightening of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank.

UPDATE 2-Oil prices fall as Asia's leading economies slow further

* ANZ bank lowers global growth forecast

* Japan's machinery orders shrink

* China's producer price index falls 42nd straight month

* Brazil downgraded to junk status (Adds growth comment, updates prices)

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday as weak Japanese and Chinese economic data fuelled concerns that low levels of investment could further erode already slowing global growth.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 3.6 percent in July, official data showed, much worse than a 3.7 percent increase expected by economists, and followed a 7.9 percent month-on-month decline in June.

In Asia's biggest economy China, the producer price index fell 5.9 percent in August from the same period last year, its 42nd consecutive month of decline and the biggest drop since the depths of the global financial crisis in late 2009, data showed on Thursday.

With many economies facing headwinds, ANZ bank said global growth for 2016 and 2017 would hold around 3.5 percent, revised down from the 4 percent it had previously forecast.

ANZ added that "in the near term the risks are skewed to further downward revision."

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 fell by around 1 percent to $47.09 per barrel at 0433 GMT. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 0.8 percent at $43.79 a barrel.

Oil prices have fallen by more than 50 percent since June 2014 as soaring output clashed with slowing economies in Asia, the main growth engine for commodities over the previous years.

The weakening in Asia's economies and commodity demand is having far-reaching effects.

On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's downgraded Brazil to a junk-grade credit rating, just seven years after it first won an investment-grade rating. Brazil, one of the main commodity exporters to China and a member of the so-called BRICS emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - was until recently seen as one of the key drivers of the global economy.

The oil price fall was compounded after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, decided last November to keep output high in favour of market share over prices.

"In the first half of 2015, Saudi Arabia exported on average 4.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil to seven major trading partners in Asia, making up more than half of Saudi Arabia's total crude oil exports over that period," the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.

"Even as global crude oil prices fell in 2014 and 2015, Saudi Arabia increased production and kept its export levels high, enabling it to maintain its market share in these countries," the EIA added. (Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Tom Hogue)

नई सोयाबीन की आवक शुरू, कीमतों में गिरावट की आशंका

नई दिल्ली। समय से दो हफ्ते पहले ही सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु हो गई है। इसका नकारात्मक असर सोयाबीन की कीमतों पर देखने को मिल सकता है। सोमवार को इंदौर में 4 टन नई सोयाबीन की आवक हुई। कारोबारियों के मुताबिक इसमें नमी की मात्रा 20-30 फीसदी है। सोमवार को 3300-3350 रुपए प्रति क्विंटल के भाव सोयाबीन बिका। एक्सपर्ट्स के मुताबिक आने वाले दिनो में सोयाबीन की आवक और बढ़ेगी, जिसके कारण कीमतें फिसल सकती है।

आने वाले दिनों में बढ़ेगी आवक

इंदौर ट्रेडर्स एसोसिएशन के प्रसिडेंट एन के अग्रवाल ने कहा कि खरीफ सीजन के दौरान समय से पहले सोयाबीन की बुआई हुई। इसलिए आवक समय से पहले शुरु हो गई है। नई फसल की की क्वालिटी अच्छी है। वहीं पिछले सीजन का सोयाबीन 3300 रुपए प्रति क्विंटल के भाव बिका।

एन के अग्रवाल ने बताया कि अगले एक हफ्ते के दौरान दूसरी मंडियों में भी सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु हो जाएगी। अगले 5 स 6 दिनो में नई सोयाबीन की आवक बढ़कर 50-100 टन पहुंच सकती है। वहीं सितंबर के अंतिम हफ्ते में आवक पूरे जोरों पर होगी।

आवक बढ़ने से कीमतों पर दबाव

इंदौर के सोयाबीन कारोबारी महेंद्र जैन ने कहा कि पिछले साल मानसून में देरी की वजह से इस समय तक सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु नहीं हुई थी। नई फसल की आवक समय से पहले शुरु होने से कीमतों पर दबाव बन सकता है। कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक अबतक देशभर में 115 लाख हेक्टेयर में सोयाबीन की बुआई हुई है, जो कि पिछले साल के मुकाबले 5 फीसदी ज्यादा है। इसके बावजूद कारोबारियों के मुताबिक देश में 100 लाख टन ही उत्पादन होगा।

Gold prices up smartly in Asia as Crimea vote supports joining Russia

Gold prices were up smartly in early Asian trade on Monday as an annexation of the Crimean region looked inevitable after a vote on Sunday, prompting President Barack Obama to warn Russia President Vladimir Putin again that the United States and Europe are "prepared to impose additional costs" on Russia for its actions.

The U.S. and Europe have said they would impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia next week, if the vote took place. On Sunday reports said an overwhelming majority supported the referendum to joing Russia and leave the Ukraine with celebrations underway. Official results are due within the day.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at $1,388.80 a troy ounce, up 0.71%, after settling at $1,379.00 a troy ounce last week.

Comex gold prices ended the week with a gain of 2.95%, or $40.80, amid heightened tensions between Russia and the U.S. over Russia's involvement in Ukraine's political crisis. 

Meanwhile, weaker than expected U.S. consumer confidence data further boosted the appeal of the precious metal.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked down to 79.9, from the 81.6 final reading in February. Analysts had expected the index to improve to 82.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve amid speculation the central bank is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program.

The Fed is also to publish its economic forecasts and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending March 11.

Net longs totaled 123,007 contracts, up 3.87% from net longs of 118,241 in the preceding week.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery traded at $21.587 a troy ounce, up 0.81% and copper for May delivery rose 0.29% 2.949 a pound. The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.

Fears over problems in China’s financial sector also sapped risk appetite following the country’s first domestic bond default this month.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Asian share markets slip as Ukraine tensions weigh on sentiment

Stocks in Japan and Hong Kong slipped on Monday as investors nervously awaited the West's response to Crimea's vote to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, which has drawn international condemnation.

Stock markets across Asia Pacific were mixed after the referendum Sunday in Crimea, the latest development in the volatile region, amid rising worries over another possible military incursion into Ukraine by Russia. Tensions there have weighed on global markets in recent weeks.

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.4%, while Australia's benchmark S&P ASX 200 shed 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi gained less than 0.2%. In China, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong lost 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite was flat.

However, business proceeded in the region with Taiwanese insurer and a Chinese private-equity firm pledging to buy a big portion of Chinese lender Harbin Bank's initial public offering, which is expected to raise around US$1 billion when it is launched Tuesday.

Fubon Life Insurance Co., an insurance unit of one of Taiwan's biggest financial firms by assets, Fubon Financial Holding Co., and Citic Capital Holdings Ltd. are among seven cornerstone investors, and have committed to buying a total of 43% of the institutional tranche of Harbin Bank's IPO, people familiar with the situation said Monday. 

But the drops in Asia mirrored the mood on Wall Street Friday. At the close of U.S. trading last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.35%. European indices, meanwhile, finished largely lower.

After the close of European trade on Friday, the EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.53%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.80%, while Germany's DAX 30 rose 0.43%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 fell 0.40%.

Investors were also looking at China after the People's Bank of China said over the weekend that it has decided to widen the yuan's daily trading band, allowing it to move up or down by 2% from the daily rate set by the central bank.

Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: October 14 - 18

Investing.com - Gold futures tumbled to a three-month low on Friday, as hopes that U.S. lawmakers would reach a deal on the U.S debt ceiling impasse before the October 17 deadline reduced the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal.  

Some technical selling also contributed to losses after prices fell through key support levels.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery dropped 1.93% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,271.90 a troy ounce. 

Comex gold prices fell to USD1,259.60 a troy ounce earlier in the day, the weakest level since July 10. The December contract settled 0.79% lower at USD1,296.00 a troy ounce on Thursday.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,242.35 a troy ounce, the low from July 10 and resistance at USD1,311.80, the high from October 10.

On the week, the precious metal lost 2.9%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

House Republicans and the Obama administration began a second day of negotiations on Friday on a deal to reopen the government and raise the U.S. debt ceiling for six weeks.

The federal government has been shut down since October 1. Lawmakers must raise the national borrowing limit by October 17 or run the risk of a U.S. sovereign debt default.

Technical selling also pressured gold after it fell through key support levels close to the USD1,280-level, triggering a flurry of automatic sell orders amid bearish chary signals.

An unusually large sell order at the start of the Comex floor trading session sent prices tumbling by USD30 within a minute, fuelling speculation hedge funds and large institutional investors unwound long positions.

Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's stimulus program was also in focus.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

Concerns over economic impact of the U.S budget and debt ceiling impasse fuelled expectations that the central bank will further delay plans to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Data released on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nine months in October, as concerns over the impact of the government shutdown weighed.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined to 75.2 from a final reading of 77.5 in September, and below expectations for a reading of 76.0.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to closely monitor political developments in Washington. Gold traders will also scrutinize speeches from a number of Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery plunged 2.91% on Friday to settle the week at USD21.25 a troy ounce. Silver prices settled 0.02% higher at USD21.89 on Thursday.

On the week, silver future prices declined 2.29%, the fifth consecutive weekly loss.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery advanced 0.63% on Friday to close the week at USD3.269 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures rose 0.54% to settle at USD3.248 a pound.

Despite gains on Friday, prices of the red metal declined 0.96% on the week, amid concerns a U.S. government shutdown will create a drag on fourth quarter economic growth.

Official data released on Saturday showed that China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in September as exports declined unexpectedly, fuelling concerns over growth prospects in the world’s second-largest economy. 

China’s trade surplus narrowed to USD15.2 billion last month from a surplus of USD28.6 billion in August, compared to estimates for a surplus of USD27.7 billion.  

Chinese exports fell 0.3% from a year earlier, defying expectations for a 6% increase and following a 7.2% gain in August. 

Market players now looked ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later in the week, including reports on inflation, gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

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