Asia Subdued as Crude Oil Flounders, Global Woes Support Dollar and Yen

Tokyo: Asian stocks were subdued early on Wednesday as floundering crude oil prices continued to dampen risk sentiment, while the dollar and yen drew support from anxiety over global growth and geopolitical risk stemming from Iran-Saudi tensions. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.1 percent. Wall Street shares closed Tuesday on very modest gains and failed to provide Asia with much impetus. 

Australian shares lost 0.7 percent and South Korea's KOSPI dipped 0.1 percent. Japan's Nikkei bucked the trend and rose 0.2 percent. 

Risk markets are now waiting to see how Chinese equities will fare later in the session. Shanghai shares stabilised somewhat on Tuesday, following an arresting 7 percent plunge at the week's start that spooked stocks worldwide. 

Both the dollar and yen attracted bids amid the risk aversion that gripped financial markets globally from the start of 2016. 

The euro stood little changed at $1.0752 after shedding 0.8 percent overnight, when it a one-month low of $1.0711. 

The common currency was steady at 128.045 yen following an overnight drop of 1 percent. It dipped as far as 127.535 on Tuesday, its lowest since late April. 

Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, wrote that the U.S. and Japanese currencies were being bought because "China is in trouble, U.S. data has been disappointing, Japan refuses to increase stimulus and oil prices continue to fall, but everyone's greatest fear is that stocks have finally peaked". 

The yen had a slight edge over the greenback. The dollar traded at 119.14 after slipping 0.3 percent overnight. It had hit a 2-1/2-month low of 118.705 earlier this week. 

In commodities, crude oil prices struggled near 11-year lows, with the market giving more attention to the stronger dollar and swelling U.S. inventories rather than growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

Relations between the two major oil producers collapsed in acrimony this week after Saudi Arabia's executed a Shi'ite cleric, setting off a storm of protests in Tehran. 

U.S. crude nudged up to $36.28 a barrel but was still down 2 percent on the week and near a seven-year low of $33.98 hit late last month. 

Oil-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar sank deeper on shaky crude prices. Canada's loonie fell to a 12-year low of C$1.402 to the dollar overnight.

Gold recovers from biggest dip in 5 months after Fed rate rise

LONDON: Gold rose on Friday, recovering from its biggest daily loss in five months as stocks and the dollar retreated, but remained near multi-year lows after the Federal Reservelifted US interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

The metal has recovered some lost ground after bottoming out on Thursday at $1,047.25 an ounce, within a few dollars of a near six-year low reached on December 3.

Spot gold was up 0.8 per cent at $1,059.80 an ounce at 1436 GMT, while US gold futures for February delivery were up $9.30 an ounce at $1,058.90.

The rate hike sparked a surge in the dollar and global stocks on Thursday, but led to a 2 per cent slide in gold. Rising rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

Gold has tumbled 11 per cent this year as investors awaited the rate rise. Now that it is out of the way, attention is turning to other factors.

"Next year the macro picture is looking a little less negative for gold and precious," Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. "It's hard to see, without a significant under-performance in the yen and the euro, how the dollar is going to rally very strongly next year."

"The Fed, from its forecasts, is anticipating four rate rises next year. The markets are saying something different - the Fed funds futures currently suggests there'll be just two rises, in June and December."

In other markets, global stocks fell and the dollar slipped 0.2 per cent, taking pressure off gold.

The metal could revisit $1,000 an ounce for the first time in six years if it breaks below its early December low at $1,045 an ounce, according to technical analysts.

"If we can take the low out, which I don't think is unreasonable, $1,033 is the next stop - that's the high from 2008 - and then $1,006, and the $1,000 figure is really the level you should be talking about," Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Hine said.

"It is achievable (by the end of the year)," he said.

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, fell another 4.5 tonnes on Thursday to 630.17 tonnes, the lowest since September 2008. That brings its monthly outflow to 25 tonnes.

Silver was up 1.5 per cent at $13.90 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.8 per cent at $850.20 an ounce and palladium was down 0.5 per cent at $551.24 an ounce.

UPDATE 4-Oil falls to 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row seen making output restraint unlikely

© Reuters. UPDATE 4-Oil falls to 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row seen making output restraint unlikely

* Saudi-Iran split dashes chance of OPEC deal to curb oil glut

* Analysts expect rise in U.S. crude stocks

* Coming up: EIA to publish inventory data at 1530 GMT (Updates with new milestone, changes dateline from SINGAPORE)

By Simon Falush

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Oil fell to its lowest in more than 11 years on Wednesday, down around 2 percent, as the row between Saudi Arabia and Iran was seen extinguishing any chance of major producers cooperating to cut production in the face of mounting global over supply.

The furore over Saudi Arabia's execution of a Shi'ite cleric has depressed the market as it put an end to speculation that OPEC members could agree on production cuts to lift prices. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N14P2QH

"There are rising stockpiles and the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia make any deal on production unlikely," said Michael Hewson, head of strategy at CMC (NS:CMC) Markets.

Global Brent crude benchmarks LCOc1 were at $35.75 a barrel at 0856 GMT, down 67 cents or 1.9 percent from their previous settlement, their lowest since 2004.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 46 cents at $35.51 per barrel after already slipping 79 cents the previous day.

Oil has slumped from above $115 in June 2014 as shale oil from the United States has flooded the market, while falling prices have prompted some producers to maximise output to prevent income falling too rapidly and keep market share.

Adding to this oversupply, Iranian oil exports are widely expected to increase in 2016 as Western sanctions against the country for its alleged nuclear weapons programme are likely to be lifted.

"Shale production and increasing capacity from countries like Russia who need to protect revenue combined with expectations of further Iranian supply mean actual production as well as expectations of future production are rising," Hewson said.

Still, a senior Iranian oil official said the country could moderate oil export increases once the sanctions are lifted to avoid putting prices under further pressure. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N14P2Z1

In the United States, concerns over mounting stock levels persisted, with crude inventories likely to have risen by 439,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of eight analysts. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N14P1FU

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its closely watched weekly data at 1530 GMT.

Geopolitical tensions boost gold futures to 1-month high

Gold futures jump to 1-month high

Investing.com - Gold prices jumped to a one-month peak on Wednesday, as investors sought refuge after North Korea said it had conducted a successful nuclear test and as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran continued to mount.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $4.30, or 0.4%, to trade at $1,082.70 a troy ounce as of 09:40 GMT, or 4:40AM ET. It earlier rose to $1,085.10, the most since December 7. On Tuesday, gold inched up $3.20, or 0.3%.

Risk sentiment weakened after North Korea confirmed that it had conducted a nuclear test and said that it won't give up nuclear capability unless U.S. abandons its hostile foreign policy towards the country.

Markets were also jittery amid growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following the execution of a prominent Saudi Shia cleric.

The yellow metal is up 2% so far this week as market players sought refuge amid instability in the Middle East and fresh concerns over global growth.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.03%, to trade at $13.97 a troy ounce during European morning hours.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper prices edged lower on Wednesday, after data showed that activity in China's services sector grew at the slowest pace in 17 months in December, the latest indication that the world's second-largest economy may be losing steam.

The Caixin services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.2 last month from November's reading of 51.2, disappointing expectations for an uptick to 52.3.

The report came after a similar survey earlier in the week showing that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the tenth straight month in December, and added to fears over the outlook for the world’s number two economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption.

Gold prices gain in Asia as China CPI rise noted

Investing.com - Gold prices gained in Asia on Thursday with regional data sets noted, particularly a rise in consumer prices in China.

In China consumer prices rose 0.5%, higher than the 0.4% gain seen in August and producer prices fell 5.9%, ore than the expected drop of 5.5% year-on-year.

Earlier, in Australia the overall unemployment rate fell to 6.2% as expected from from 6.3% and 11,500 jobs were added, compared to an expected 5,000 under a participation rate of 65% as seen.

Japan's corporate goods price index for August fell 0.6%, compared to a 0.4% fall seen month-on-month, while core machinery orders dipped 3.6% in July month-on-month, well off the 3.7% gain seen.

And the New Zealand dollar slumped in Asia on Thursday after the central bank, as expected, cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery rose 0.33% to $1,105.60 a troy ounce, wjhile silver for December delivery fell 0.04% to $14.570 a troy ounce.

Copper for December delivery rose 0.39% to $2.432 a pound.

Overnight, gold futures fell sharply on Wednesday suffering its largest one-day fall in more than six weeks, amid a broadly stronger dollar and the introduction of further stimulus measures by China to rekindle its flagging economy.

In Beijing, China's finance ministry said it would introduce "more forceful" fiscal measures in order to boost slowing economic growth, which is projected to remain at the lowest level in more than a decade for the third quarter. The measures include a potential tax cut for small business, as well as the allocation of funding for infrastructure projects. As part of the proposal, the ministry approved two railway projects worth nearly 70 billion yuan or $11 billion.

“We will accelerate the implementation and improvement of proactive fiscal policy and related measures, do timely fine tuning, and speed up reform measures to support stable growth and promote continued healthy economic development,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

It came one day after China announced that its dollar-denominated exports fell sharply by 5.5% on a year-over-year basis in August, exacerbating concerns about persisting weakness in the world's second-largest economy. Imports, meanwhile, tumbled 13.8% on a yearly basis, producing a trade surplus of $60.24 billion. On Wednesday, theShanghai Composite index closed 2.3% higher extending gains from one session earlier. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer behind India.

In the U.S., the Labor Department said on Wednesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that nationwide openings increased to a new series high in July, reaching a level of 5.8 million. The survey previously rose to a series-high in May when it reached a level of 5.4 million. The job openings rate surged 3.9% in July, after measuring at 3.6% the previous three months. It also came off the back of a mixed employment report for August on Friday when the labor market added 173,000 non-farm payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%, its lowest level since April, 2008. The data could strengthen arguments from the hawks at the Federal Reserve for a September interest rate hike.

Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in raising rate environments.

On Tuesday, World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu warned that a rate hike by the Fed next week could trigger a widespread crisis in emerging markets, pushing capital away from their economies and potentially creating sharp fluctuations in their currencies. Officials from the International Monetary Fund have issued similar warnings in recent weeks on the severe ramifications a rate hike could have on global markets that are not in the position to absorb a tightening of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank.

UPDATE 2-Oil prices fall as Asia's leading economies slow further

* ANZ bank lowers global growth forecast

* Japan's machinery orders shrink

* China's producer price index falls 42nd straight month

* Brazil downgraded to junk status (Adds growth comment, updates prices)

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday as weak Japanese and Chinese economic data fuelled concerns that low levels of investment could further erode already slowing global growth.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 3.6 percent in July, official data showed, much worse than a 3.7 percent increase expected by economists, and followed a 7.9 percent month-on-month decline in June.

In Asia's biggest economy China, the producer price index fell 5.9 percent in August from the same period last year, its 42nd consecutive month of decline and the biggest drop since the depths of the global financial crisis in late 2009, data showed on Thursday.

With many economies facing headwinds, ANZ bank said global growth for 2016 and 2017 would hold around 3.5 percent, revised down from the 4 percent it had previously forecast.

ANZ added that "in the near term the risks are skewed to further downward revision."

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 fell by around 1 percent to $47.09 per barrel at 0433 GMT. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 0.8 percent at $43.79 a barrel.

Oil prices have fallen by more than 50 percent since June 2014 as soaring output clashed with slowing economies in Asia, the main growth engine for commodities over the previous years.

The weakening in Asia's economies and commodity demand is having far-reaching effects.

On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's downgraded Brazil to a junk-grade credit rating, just seven years after it first won an investment-grade rating. Brazil, one of the main commodity exporters to China and a member of the so-called BRICS emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - was until recently seen as one of the key drivers of the global economy.

The oil price fall was compounded after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, decided last November to keep output high in favour of market share over prices.

"In the first half of 2015, Saudi Arabia exported on average 4.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil to seven major trading partners in Asia, making up more than half of Saudi Arabia's total crude oil exports over that period," the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.

"Even as global crude oil prices fell in 2014 and 2015, Saudi Arabia increased production and kept its export levels high, enabling it to maintain its market share in these countries," the EIA added. (Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Tom Hogue)

नई सोयाबीन की आवक शुरू, कीमतों में गिरावट की आशंका

नई दिल्ली। समय से दो हफ्ते पहले ही सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु हो गई है। इसका नकारात्मक असर सोयाबीन की कीमतों पर देखने को मिल सकता है। सोमवार को इंदौर में 4 टन नई सोयाबीन की आवक हुई। कारोबारियों के मुताबिक इसमें नमी की मात्रा 20-30 फीसदी है। सोमवार को 3300-3350 रुपए प्रति क्विंटल के भाव सोयाबीन बिका। एक्सपर्ट्स के मुताबिक आने वाले दिनो में सोयाबीन की आवक और बढ़ेगी, जिसके कारण कीमतें फिसल सकती है।

आने वाले दिनों में बढ़ेगी आवक

इंदौर ट्रेडर्स एसोसिएशन के प्रसिडेंट एन के अग्रवाल ने कहा कि खरीफ सीजन के दौरान समय से पहले सोयाबीन की बुआई हुई। इसलिए आवक समय से पहले शुरु हो गई है। नई फसल की की क्वालिटी अच्छी है। वहीं पिछले सीजन का सोयाबीन 3300 रुपए प्रति क्विंटल के भाव बिका।

एन के अग्रवाल ने बताया कि अगले एक हफ्ते के दौरान दूसरी मंडियों में भी सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु हो जाएगी। अगले 5 स 6 दिनो में नई सोयाबीन की आवक बढ़कर 50-100 टन पहुंच सकती है। वहीं सितंबर के अंतिम हफ्ते में आवक पूरे जोरों पर होगी।

आवक बढ़ने से कीमतों पर दबाव

इंदौर के सोयाबीन कारोबारी महेंद्र जैन ने कहा कि पिछले साल मानसून में देरी की वजह से इस समय तक सोयाबीन की आवक शुरु नहीं हुई थी। नई फसल की आवक समय से पहले शुरु होने से कीमतों पर दबाव बन सकता है। कृषि मंत्रालय के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक अबतक देशभर में 115 लाख हेक्टेयर में सोयाबीन की बुआई हुई है, जो कि पिछले साल के मुकाबले 5 फीसदी ज्यादा है। इसके बावजूद कारोबारियों के मुताबिक देश में 100 लाख टन ही उत्पादन होगा।