MCX Silver likely to trade range-bound till US- non farm payroll data release

(Commodity News word): On the MCX, silver for March delivery traded with minor change in prices and is likely to trade range-bound for today's session till the release of US - non farm payroll.

For intra-day, silver may trade sideways to bearish till the release of US payroll data. Silver on MCX for March delivery has support at 57700, if the commodity falls below the range then it could see a test of 56900 level.

The resistance is now likely to be seen at 58700, a move above could see prices testing 59200 for the commodity.

“Those traders who are holding long position in silver for March delivery should maintain stop loss of 57700 for today. Intra-day traders should wait and watch till the release of US data before entering into short term trades,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.

The demand for risk-on assets such as gold was dampened by the US jobless claims which came in higher than last week which resulted in profit taking also.

End-of-the-month position squaring, profit taking from short-term traders, and pre - Job data report positioning were the the major reasons for sharp fall in prices on Thursday.

Bullion prices are also affected by stronger than expected Chicago PMI in early trading session.

COMEX silver for March delivery was seen trading at $31.380 a gain of $ 0.029 or 0.09% as of 03.16 PM, IST. On India's MCX, silver for delivery on March 5 was spotted trading at Rs.57781 a fall of of 0.12%.

MCX Silver likely to trade range-bound till US- non farm payroll data release

(Commodity News word): On the MCX, silver for March delivery traded with minor change in prices and is likely to trade range-bound for today's session till the release of US - non farm payroll.

For intra-day, silver may trade sideways to bearish till the release of US payroll data. Silver on MCX for March delivery has support at 57700, if the commodity falls below the range then it could see a test of 56900 level.

The resistance is now likely to be seen at 58700, a move above could see prices testing 59200 for the commodity.

“Those traders who are holding long position in silver for March delivery should maintain stop loss of 57700 for today. Intra-day traders should wait and watch till the release of US data before entering into short term trades,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at Commodity Online.

The demand for risk-on assets such as gold was dampened by the US jobless claims which came in higher than last week which resulted in profit taking also.

End-of-the-month position squaring, profit taking from short-term traders, and pre - Job data report positioning were the the major reasons for sharp fall in prices on Thursday.

Bullion prices are also affected by stronger than expected Chicago PMI in early trading session.

COMEX silver for March delivery was seen trading at $31.380 a gain of $ 0.029 or 0.09% as of 03.16 PM, IST. On India's MCX, silver for delivery on March 5 was spotted trading at Rs.57781 a fall of of 0.12%.

India infrastructure sector outlook mostly negative, govt initiatives encouraging: India Ratings

(Commodity News World): India Ratings has maintained an overall negative outlook for Indian infrastructure projects for 2013, considering project companies’ continued weak credit profiles. However, some sub-sectors have a split outlook. The outlook for power projects remains negative while certain pockets in the transportation sector have a stable outlook. 

The agency observes that a range of recent policy initiatives announced by the government are encouraging and have kindled a sense of optimism among market participants. However, it believes that the process of addressing fundamental risks through concrete and sustained on-the-ground actions to repair damaged credit quality is likely to be protracted. The policy initiatives include a presidential directive to the state-owned Coal India Ltd to sign fuel supply agreements, financial restructuring of distribution utilities, constitution of the Cabinet Committee on Investments and the likely introduction of the Land Acquisition Bill in the ensuing Budget session of Parliament. 

India Ratings expects that in 2013 a number of projects are likely to default on their bank debt obligations. Alternatively, lenders might be compelled to approve forced debt restructuring packages. This is in view of their weak financial structures and multiple risks including construction delays, plant stabilisation issues and fuel supply constraints in the power sector and traffic under-performance in the transportation sector. Reduced sponsor capacity to extend support would also likely contribute to this phenomenon. In a majority of the agency’s rated infrastructure projects, sponsors have played a significant role in preserving the credit profile of their projects. Deterioration in sponsor’s profile will impair their ability to keep supporting projects that have a low economic value. 

Some of the macro-economic variables – a pick-up in GDP growth rate, abatement of inflationary pressures and the expected drop in interest rates – may turn favourable during 2013. This may result in cash flows of infrastructure projects experiencing some improvement though the ‘lag’ effect would imply that benefits are unlikely to accrue immediately.

India Ratings maintains a negative outlook for power projects. Many projects face protracted delays in completion – either because of technical issues such as longer plant stabilisation or due to slow land acquisition for plant area, constraints in developing railway and transmission infrastructure and delays in operationalising captive coal mines. Fuel shortage, off take risks and counterparty credit profiles are compounding the issues faced by these projects, making them vulnerable to ratings downgrades. 

Construction delays and traffic underperformance will remain the two most important rating drivers for toll road projects in 2013. Many projects exhibit stable characteristics with drastic rating downgrades averted only on account of expectation of continued sponsor support to fund cost overruns and/or bridge marginal revenue shortfalls in case of operating assets. The ratings of availability-based (annuity) road projects will be stable in 2013 because of low revenue risks and simple maintenance requirements considering the operator-cum-sponsor’s track record in the sector.

The regulatory clarity that has emerged from the recent orders on project costs and the levy of airport development fee has provided relief to airport credits. However, global economic uncertainties and slowing growth in India coupled with rising air fares have led to negative growth in domestic passenger enplanements; international passenger traffic has grown at a slower rate. The agency views this fall in passenger enplanements as cyclical and believes that it is unlikely that long-term forecasts would not be achieved, given the strong growth recorded over the last six-seven years

Turnover of commodity bourses down 5.5% in April-December

 NEW DELHI:
The turnover of commodity exchanges fell 5.54 per cent during the April-December period to Rs 1,29,62,447 crore because of decline in bullion trade.

"The cumulative value of trade from April 1, 2012 up to December 31, 2012 during the financial year 2012-13 was Rs 129,62,447.62 crore," market regulator FMC said in its report.


 The turnover of commodity bourses was Rs 1,37,22,854 crore in the corresponding period of previous fiscal.

Bullion trade declined by 25.30 per cent in the first nine months of 2012-13 to Rs 60,03,141 crore, from Rs 80,36,753 crore in the year-ago period.

However, total trade in agriculture commodities during the period rose 16 per cent to Rs 17,12,849 crore, from Rs 14,71,629 crore in the nine months of the previous fiscal.

Similarly, trade in metals (other than bullion) increased by 17 per cent from April-December at Rs 23,99,548 crore, from Rs 20,43,105 crore in the year-ago period.

The trade in energy was up by Rs 28,46,907 crore compared with Rs 21,71,364 crore during the period under review.

There are more than 20 commodity exchanges (both national level and regional) in the country.

Gold flat as stimulus buying fades, euro zone eyed

 NEW YORK: Gold traded flat on Wednesday, as renewed fears about a worsening euro zone debt crisis along with wider concern about the global economy dampened the metal's allure as a traditional inflation hedge.

Analysts said that some investors could take profits after gold had climbed for four consecutive months prior to October. The failure of recent rallies to break above $1,800 an ounce also triggered technical pressure.

The metal reached an 11-month high on Friday on hopes that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other major central banks would continue pumping money into the global economy to stimulate growth, which has boosted gold's inflation-hedge appeal.

"Additional monetary policy easing in the United States and other countries is no longer fresh news, and so we do not anticipate further significant buying of gold based on monetary policy accommodation alone," said James Steel, HSBC's metal analyst.

Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,762.70 an ounce by 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 GMT). Bullion was still within reach to a 11-month high of $1,795.69, which marked the loftiest price since November.

US COMEX gold futures for December delivery were 40 cents lower at $1,764.60, with trading volume on track to finish sharply below average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Silver, however, climbed 0.6 percent to $34.05 an ounce, boosted by better industrial-demand outlook as crude oil and base metals recovered after their recent losses.

Bullion tracked US equities lower, after the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday urged European policymakers to deepen the financial and fiscal ties within the euro area to restore sagging confidence in the global financial system.

Purchases of exchange-traded products (ETPs) reflected investors' positive outlook for bullion in the long term. Bullion backed ETPs rose to a record high on Oct 9.

A Reuters poll of 27 analysts released Wednesday showed they remained bullish on bullion in the long term. Analysts unanimously forecast a record high average price of $1,690.00 an ounce in 2012, up a touch from an estimate of $1,685.00 at the end of the second quarter and $1,765 suggested in January.

Analysts expect the metal to book a thirteenth successive year of gains in 2013, reaching an average price of $1,853.75.

Among platinum group metals that are mostly used as auto catalytic converters, platinum fell on signs that industrial unrest in South Africa, home to the largest platinum reserves, was abating.

Spot platinum was down 0.3 percent on the day at $1,674.75 per ounce, while palladium was down 0.2 percent at $651.47 an ounce.

Palladium also fell after data from China showed a decline in vehicle sales in September versus the year earlier period, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Wednesday.

OIL FUTURES: Crude Pushes Above $93/bbl

--U.S. crude oil adds gains as Middle East keeps traders on edge
--Nymex oil recently up 99 cents to $93.38/bbl
--Iran, Syria worries trump OPEC warning on demand slowdown

 
   By Jerry A. DiColo 
 

NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil futures pushed higher Wednesday, adding to a $3 rally Tuesday as investors stay focused on renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Light, sweet crude oil for November delivery recently traded 99 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $93.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude oil on the ICE futures exchange traded up 77 cents to $115.27 a barrel.
Oil prices rose Wednesday as concerns about Turkey and Syria continued to mount, after Turkey's top military commander warned that the country would take tougher action if Syrian shells continued to land on Turkish territory.
While Turkey and Syria aren't major oil producers, the possibility of expanded military activity highlights the threat that Syria's civil war could devolve into a regional conflict. Turkey is also an important oil-transportation route, and fears have grown that the 400,000 barrels a day of Iraqi oil piped to the Turkish port of Ceyhan could become a target.
"Elevated tensions and military activity along the Syria-Turkey border are reminders that isolated incidents could quickly spread," analysts at JP Morgan said in a note to clients.
On Tuesday, prices rose more than $3 a barrel as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called parliamentary elections for early 2013, a move seen by some as a way to shore up his political base ahead of possible military action against Iran.
The latest worries about oil supplies from the Middle East has trumped several reports this week suggesting global oil demand growth will stall.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday oil supplies will remain comfortable in the coming year, lowered its forecast for global demand growth this year and predicted a continued slowdown in 2013.
"Right now the market is undecided on the next move," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at Price Futures Group. "Weaker demand should mean lower prices but, in a world hellbent on keeping the economy afloat with stimulus, and the rising geopolitical risk, supply and demand won't matter."
Oil prices have seen big swings in recent days, but have still remained close to the level of $90 a barrel since falling from near $100 a barrel in mid-September.
In its monthly oil-market report, OPEC said oil-demand growth will fall to 800,000 barrels a day this year, down 100,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate. But the group warned that next year's demand faces "considerable uncertainties" that could lower its 2013 estimate by as much as 20%.
The OPEC report followed a report from the International Monetary Fund earlier this week suggesting that the risk of a global recession has risen, raising worries about oil demand even as Middle East tensions keep traders on edge.
Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 2.07 cents higher at $2.9794 a gallon. November heating oil recently traded 2.64 cent higher at $3.2296 a gallon.
--Ben Winkley contributed to this report.
Write to Jerry A. DiColo at jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com.

Gold extends losses to a third day

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold prices traded lower Tuesday as global-growth concerns and nervousness ahead of the corporate-earnings season preoccupied traders, and as the dollar gathered steam.

Gold for December delivery GCZ2 -0.41%  declined $8.10, or 0.5%, to $1,767.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It earlier traded as low as $1,762 an ounce, and prices had spent most of the session in and out of the red.

Gold was getting mixed messages on Tuesday, said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior marketing strategist with Archer Financial. Some inflationary forces were at play, but amid equity weakness and dollar strength it could not get much traction, he said.

Gold dropped $5.10, or 0.3%, on Monday to settle at $1,775.70 an ounce, after the World Bank downgraded its growth forecast for Chinese growth.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global growth yet again, to 3.3% this year from a forecast of 3.5% made in July. The bank predicted growth of 3.6% in 2013, from a prediction of 3.9% in July.

The bank also said France, Spain and other euro-zone governments won’t meet fiscal targets agreed upon. IMF: key euro-zone nations to miss deficit targets.

The downgrade and the worries made the dollar the safe-haven of choice, crimping gold and other dollar-denominated commodities.

The ICE dollar index DXY +0.54% , which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose to 79.981, compared with 79.595 in late North American trading on Monday. See: Dollar rises as IMF sounds warning.

Also on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China injected a big dose of liquidity to help ease tight money conditions.

That move strengthened hopes for more policy easing from the central bank, providing some underlying support for commodities. See: PBOC’s Zhou pledges flexible, pre-emptive policy

Analysts at Commerzbank said in a research note that markets seem to be recognizing that chances of cheap central bank liquidity will improve if global growth continues to slow. Gold has gained this year largely due to central-bank efforts to keep monetary policy loose.

“The chance of unlimited, cheap central bank liquidity and strong exchange-traded-fund inflows suggest that the price might soon rise towards $1,800,” the analysts wrote. Continuing strikes in the South African gold sector are another supportive factor, they noted.

There are strikes at mines owned by AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AU +0.07%   ZA:ANG +4.62% , Gold Fields Ltd. ZA:GFI +1.95% , and Harmony Gold Mining Co. ZA:HAR +1.91%   HMY -0.05% . Workers from other sectors have also joined the walkouts in recent days.

While South African gold production has been on the wane, the nation was still the fifth-largest gold producer last year, the Commerzbank analysts said.

“Every ounce which is lost to strikes exacerbates the supply bottlenecks, and since the beginning of September, (exchange-traded funds) have been absorbing virtually half of the global mine production during this period,” they said.

South Africa’s strikes are a strain but one that does not impact gold as much as it impacts platinum, Klopfenstein said.

Platinum, 80% of which is mined in South Africa, remains well supported by strikes that continue to spread, lately to Xstrata PLC’s UK:XTA +0.86%  Eland mine.

January platinum futures PLF3 -0.11%  turned lower, however, off $2.10, or 0.1%, to $1,696.70 an ounce, while palladium for December delivery PAZ2 +0.21%  rose $2.35, or 0.4%, to $659.30 an ounce.

Silver went back to the red, with the December contract SIZ2 -0.05%  down 8 cents, or 0.3%, to $33.93 an ounce.

December copper futures HGZ2 +0.01%  rose less than 1 cent, or 0.1%, to $3.72 a pound