(Kitco News) - Comex gold
futures prices are trading weaker again Tuesday morning, as the market continues
to consolidate on the charts following last week’s downdraft. The key “outside
markets” are neutral to mildly bearish for the precious metals markets early
Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, but crude oil prices are also
firmer. Traders are awaiting Tuesday afternoon’s statement following the FOMC
meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. April gold last traded down $3.80 at
$1,696.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.70 an ounce at $1,696.50.
May Comex silver last traded up $0.197 at $33.61 an ounce.
(NOTE:
I am doing a free educational webinar for Kitco later this week. It will be a
tutorial on how basic technical analysis can improve upon your
trading/investment methods. As with all my work, the webinar will be in “plain
English” and easy to understand for all market watchers. Make sure to check out
the Kitco home page for more details and on how to sign up.—Jim)
It’s
been quieter on the world geopolitical front recently, and that’s allowed the
gold market to drift sideways on the charts. The European Union sovereign debt
crisis has eased. The Greek private sector/government debt swap arrangement was
endorsed by EU politicians on Monday. There was also some positive German
economic news out Tuesday. However, now that the latest Greek hurdle has been
cleared the market place attention is turning to other EU trouble spots, such as
Portugal and/or Spain. The overall EU debt crisis remains a major underlying
bullish factor for safe-haven gold.
The
U.S. dollar index is trading firmer Tuesday morning. The dollar index bulls have
gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently, and that is a
negative for the precious metals bulls. Meantime, the crude oil market is
trading firmer Tuesday morning, which is a bullish outside force for most
commodity markets, including gold and silver. Crude oil is the raw commodity
sector leader.
U.S.
economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index,
the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, retail sales,
manufacturing and trade inventories, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index and
the statement from the FOMC meeting.
The
London A.M. gold fixing was $1,694.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of
$1,697.50.
Technically,
gold futures bulls have made a modest recovery from last week’s low, but still
have more work to do to recover from the recent downside price action that did
produce some near-term technical damage. The bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,727.30.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
chart support at last week’s low of $1,663.40. First resistance is seen at the
overnight high of $1,692.20 and then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at
1,688.40 and then at last Friday’s low of $1,677.00.
May
silver futures bulls are also trying to recover from last week’s losses, but
have more work to do in the near term to regain upside technical momentum.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $35.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $32.49. First resistance is seen $34.00 and then at Monday’s high
of $34.41. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $33.39 and then at
Friday’s low of $33.145.
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By
Jim Wyckoff contributing to Kitco News; jim@jimwyckoff.com
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