Gold price falls, platinum price rallies as global growth confidence continues to improve. The gold price fell to its lowest level in two months last week as continued improvements in US economic data and an increase in the Fed’s assessment of the economic outlook cuased investors to reduce their expectations of further near-term monetary easing.
While the recent price correction has pushed gold down below its 200-day moving average, underlying structural fundamentals supporting the gold price such as low real interest rates, currency debasement concerns, sovereign debt risks, emerging market central bank diversification of reserve assets into gold, rising China consumer and investor demand, have not changed.
Perhaps not surprisingly, with confidence in a sustainable global growth rebound improving, cylically-sensitive precious metals such as platinum and palladium are benefitting, with the platinum price surging above the gold price last week for the first time in six months. As long as this growth optimism continues, the more cyclically sensitive precious metals will likely continue to outperform.
India doubles gold import duties in an attempt to slow rising current account deficit. India’s finance minister, in his budget speech, announced that the basic customs duty on standard gold coins and bars will be increased fom 2% to 4% in a bid to reduce the current account deficit.
Mr Muherjee noted that ‘one pf the primary drivers of the current account deficit has been the growth of almost 50% in imports of gold and precious metals’. The rise in duties is expected to be passed onto consumers by jewelers and likely to be another constraint on the world’s largest jewellery market at a time when the Indian rupee is hovering near 2-month lows against the US Dollar.
Zimbabwe pushes ahead with ‘indigenisation’ plans. Impala Platinum’s Zimbabwean subsidiary, Zimplats, has agreed to transfer a 51% stake to local indigenous groups and the government after a threat by the government to nationalise the company. Platinum Group metals prices have remained well supported despite the selloff in both gold and silver in recent weeks.
Global growth and US housing data likely to be main market focus this week. The release of US housing data is likely to be a key investors focus this week, with strong data expected to add to investors’ confidence in the US economic recovery and continue to support cyclical precious metals.
In Europe, investors’ will scrutinize Eurozone industrial new orders as well as advance Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings to gauge whether the US recovery is spilling over to Europe.
Courtesy: ETF Securities Research
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